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Nov. 4th, 2008 07:57 amBush's approval ratings, 2001-2008
The trajectory is kind of fascinating. I want to see what other two-termers' ratings look like over time.
The blog post that goes with the image makes the broader point that McCain's campaign has been crippled by the long-term trends in sentiment toward his party. A man who spoke at our orientation about his presidential prediction business noted similarly that voter behavior, in aggregate, is rational, and responds primarily to long-term rather than short-term information. If the incumbent party has been doing well, by certain measures of "well," the incumbent party gets reelected; otherwise, the main challenger wins. If he is right (and he has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1980), this race would have ended up being a tough one for the Republicans no matter who was in the seat.
But, of course, it's not over yet. Tonight I've got a date with the TV, some pizza, and some beer to take the edge off the nerves. Tonight is one night where I wish I had cable.
The trajectory is kind of fascinating. I want to see what other two-termers' ratings look like over time.
The blog post that goes with the image makes the broader point that McCain's campaign has been crippled by the long-term trends in sentiment toward his party. A man who spoke at our orientation about his presidential prediction business noted similarly that voter behavior, in aggregate, is rational, and responds primarily to long-term rather than short-term information. If the incumbent party has been doing well, by certain measures of "well," the incumbent party gets reelected; otherwise, the main challenger wins. If he is right (and he has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1980), this race would have ended up being a tough one for the Republicans no matter who was in the seat.
But, of course, it's not over yet. Tonight I've got a date with the TV, some pizza, and some beer to take the edge off the nerves. Tonight is one night where I wish I had cable.