(no subject)
Nov. 4th, 2008 07:57 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
eiriasBush's approval ratings, 2001-2008
The trajectory is kind of fascinating. I want to see what other two-termers' ratings look like over time.
The blog post that goes with the image makes the broader point that McCain's campaign has been crippled by the long-term trends in sentiment toward his party. A man who spoke at our orientation about his presidential prediction business noted similarly that voter behavior, in aggregate, is rational, and responds primarily to long-term rather than short-term information. If the incumbent party has been doing well, by certain measures of "well," the incumbent party gets reelected; otherwise, the main challenger wins. If he is right (and he has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1980), this race would have ended up being a tough one for the Republicans no matter who was in the seat.
But, of course, it's not over yet. Tonight I've got a date with the TV, some pizza, and some beer to take the edge off the nerves. Tonight is one night where I wish I had cable.
The trajectory is kind of fascinating. I want to see what other two-termers' ratings look like over time.
The blog post that goes with the image makes the broader point that McCain's campaign has been crippled by the long-term trends in sentiment toward his party. A man who spoke at our orientation about his presidential prediction business noted similarly that voter behavior, in aggregate, is rational, and responds primarily to long-term rather than short-term information. If the incumbent party has been doing well, by certain measures of "well," the incumbent party gets reelected; otherwise, the main challenger wins. If he is right (and he has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1980), this race would have ended up being a tough one for the Republicans no matter who was in the seat.
But, of course, it's not over yet. Tonight I've got a date with the TV, some pizza, and some beer to take the edge off the nerves. Tonight is one night where I wish I had cable.
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
(no subject)
Date: 2008-11-04 05:03 pm (UTC)(tears own screaming head off)
I think I just have a weird definition of rational. In short, in my own personal usage only symbol manipulation under certain rules is rational. Yes, that implies that rationality plays very little part in human behavior or the world in general, and I'm comfortable with that. What most people call "rational", I call merely "practical", because that's the most sense I can make of it.
(no subject)
Date: 2008-11-04 09:53 pm (UTC)